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Expert: Florida Housing To Bottom By Mid-2010

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Expert: Florida Housing To Bottom By Mid-2010

National real estate consultant Jack McCabe, one of the first analysts to predict South Florida’s housing bubble and bust, projects that the Florida housing market is within a year of hitting bottom.

McCabe, president and chief executive of McCabe Research & Consulting LLC in Deerfield Beach, Fla., estimates residential values are within 15 percent of their lowest levels, and he expects the remaining price drop to occur in the next four quarters.

“I think 2009 is going to be the toughest year of this downturn for the state of Florida,” McCabe said in an exclusive video interview with CondoVultures.com. “I really see next year – about mid-2010 – that, I think, we are finally going to reach the bottom, or what everybody has been calling the bottom.”

The hour-long McCabe video interview where he discusses Florida’s past, present, and future with Peter Zalewski, a principal with the Bal Harbour, Fla.-based real estate consultancy Condo Vultures®, is available in its entirety in the White Papers section of CondoVultures.com.

McCabe disagrees with some on Wall Street that Florida residential pricing will still fall an additional 35 percent in the upcoming months.

“I don’t think it is going to be that severe,” McCabe said. “I think the worst is behind us, but I still believe we have another 10 to 15 percent drop because of the unemployment and the foreclosures depressing prices, and the amount of inventory we have yet to absorb.”

The bottom may be within McCabe’s sight but he doesn’t expect Florida prices to appreciate in the foreseeable future.

“I don’t think it is going to be a V-shape recovery,” McCabe said. “I think this is going to be more like an L shape [recovery]. We are going to see prices remain along that bottom potentially into 2012 before we see any type of appreciation at all.

“When we do, it is going to be more in line with historical trends of about six percent [appreciation] a year. We have a ways to go yet.”

Which Banks Are Leading This Year’s Faster Pace of Foreclosures?

Several major banks that have not been household names around South Florida played big roles in a 31 percent jump in residential foreclosure filings in the region during this year’s first four months.

The Condo Vultures® Foreclosure Database™ of court records shows 33,422 filings this year through April 30, up from 25,480 for the same period in 2008.

Foreclosure filings have been increasing in 2009 even though several large banks suspended foreclosures in South Florida for several weeks in February and March. Read More

Miami Developer To Participate On Rental Rates Panel Discussion

Alan Ojeda, developer of the new high-rise rental tower One Broadway in Miami's Brickell Avenue area, has confirmed his participation at the Condo Vultures® Seminar Series June panel discussion on South Florida rental rate trends and the never-ending quest for double-digit cap rates on investment properties.

Ojeda joins a soon-to-be-announced Florida bank president and a national real estate analyst for a discussion with Condo Vultures® principal Peter Zalewski about the current and future trends in South Florida's rental market.

The June 16 program is scheduled to feature a networking session, panel discussion, and question and answer period with the panel. For more information, visit the Upcoming Events page at CondoVultures.com.

Condo Vultures® Deep Discounts of the Week: Waterfront Residences

Here is a list of some of the biggest discounts in the Vultures Database™ on waterfront residences in Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties:

Miami-Dade County:
Aventura: Distressed condo on the Intracoastal reduced by 64 percent.
Bal Harbour: Distressed condo on the Intracoastal reduced by 55 percent.
Bay Harbor Islands: Waterfront condo reduced by 36 percent.
Coconut Grove: Bayfront condo reduced by 31percent.
Coral Gables: Distressed condo on a canal reduced by 45 percent.
Eastern Shores: Bayfront home reduced by 59 percent.
El Portal: Bank-owned home on a canal reduced by 51 percent.
Fisher Island: Distressed, oceanfront condo reduced by 59 percent.
Key Biscayne: Distressed oceanfront condo reduced by 44 percent.
Miami: Bank-owned, bayfront condo reduced by 78 percent.
Miami Beach: Condo on the Intracoastal reduced by 79 percent.
Miami Shores: Distressed home on the Bay reduced by 47 percent.
North Bay Village: Distressed, bayfront condo reduced by 71 percent.
North Miami: Distressed condo on a canal reduced by 71 percent.
North Miami Beach: Bank-owned condo on a canal reduced by 73 percent.
Sunny Isles Beach: Distressed bayfront condo reduced by 71 percent.
Surfside: Distressed oceanfront condo reduced by 60 percent.

Broward County:
Fort Lauderdale: Distressed condo on the Intracoastal reduced by 67 percent.
Hallandale Beach: Distressed condo on a canal reduced by 65 percent.
Hollywood Beach: Distressed oceanfront condo reduced by 68 percent.
Dania Beach: Home on a canal reduced by 28 percent.
Pompano Beach: Distressed condo on the Intracoastal reduced by 66 percent.

Palm Beach County:
Boca Raton: Distressed lakefront condo reduced by 17 percent.
Boynton Beach: Distressed condo on the Intracoastal reduced by 39 percent.
Delray Beach: Distressed lakefront condo reduced by 63 percent.
Highland Beach: Oceanfront condo reduced by 33 percent.
Hypoluxo: Distressed condo on the Intracoastal reduced by 49 percent.
Palm Beach: Distressed condo on the Intracoastal reduced by 46 percent.
West Palm Beach: Distressed condo on the Intracoastal reduced by 57 percent.

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Peter Zalewski of Condo Vultures® can be reached at 800-750-0517 or by email at peter@condovultures.com . Don't forget to sign up for our weekly Market Intelligence Report™ for detailed condo reports. Looking for a property at a deep discount? You are encouraged to take a peek at the Vultures Database™. Our new books, the Official Condo Buyers Guide to Miami™ and Miami's Great Condo Crash: A Chronicle of the Boom and Bust™ are now available. Want to see every foreclosure filed in South Florida since 2007? Check out our Foreclosure Database™.